BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.18
20260.090.000.18
20270.090.000.18
20280.090.000.18
20290.090.000.18

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI52022
GillettARKANSAS22024
BardwellKENTUCKY21967
TchulaMISSISSIPPI21970
HughesARKANSAS12004
South BendARKANSAS11978
AugustaARKANSAS11988
SaffellARKANSAS12004
UlmARKANSAS12009
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12002
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI12009
TippoMISSISSIPPI11998
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI11990
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE11969
PawpawTENNESSEE11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.