BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-and-white Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Black-and-white Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+221%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-and-white Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-and-white Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.09–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-and-white Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.09–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.080.29
20260.190.080.30
20270.190.090.30
20280.200.090.30
20290.200.090.31

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-and-white Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA42024
NobleOKLAHOMA32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22021
Glen RoseTEXAS22023
Wills PointTEXAS22014
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22014
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12012
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11991
BeggsOKLAHOMA12001
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12008
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12010
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12021
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12015
MuldoonTEXAS12013
Lone OakTEXAS12002
Oak GroveTEXAS11983
GauseTEXAS11997
Massey LakeTEXAS12023
OakwoodTEXAS11975
OlaTEXAS12002
SeldenTEXAS12021
CottonwoodTEXAS12022
LydiaTEXAS12023
SadlerTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.