BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin

FringillidaeForest birdsSpinus pinus

Pine Siskin has surged: up 384% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+384%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,057RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Pine Siskin

The Pine Siskin (Spinus pinus) is a North American member of the Finches (Fringillidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6.5 in long (11–16 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,057 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 33 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Fringillidae · Forest birds

Notable Pine Siskin TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has surged in surveyed states: up 384% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.62–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.62–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.582.1
20261.30.592.1
20271.40.602.1
20281.40.612.1
20291.40.622.1

Where the Pine Siskin Is Detected

BBS routes recording Pine Siskin, sized by most recent count.

Pine Siskin Population Trend by State

Pine Siskin population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-85%197475
Arizona+95%197021
California-42%1970120
Colorado+10%197094
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a1
Idaho+164%197153
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Maine-53%196856
Marylandinsufficient datan/a2
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a7
Michigan-85%197138
Minnesota-23%197034
Montana-18%197066
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a3
Nevada+242%19984
New Hampshire-76%196917
New Mexico-34%197027
New York-91%197339
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a4
North Dakota+118%197320
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oregon-66%197096
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a7
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
South Dakota-90%196914
Tennesseeinsufficient datan/a1
Utah+36%197154
Vermont-69%198016
Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Washington-37%197081
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a2
Wisconsin-80%196943
Wyoming+23%197058

Pine Siskin Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Pine Siskin population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-11%19873
BCR 4-91%197841
Northern Pacific Rainforest-50%1970142
Great Basin-25%1970111
Northern Rockies-26%1970169
Prairie Potholes+147%197329
Boreal Hardwood Transition-55%196990
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-56%197816
Atlantic Northern Forest-90%1968103
Sierra Nevada-82%197337
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+75%1970159
Badlands and Prairies-60%196938
Shortgrass Prairie-85%19817
Prairie Hardwood Transition-27%197019
Appalachian Mountains-76%198127
Coastal California-40%197032
Sierra Madre Occidental-8%197018

Pine Siskin Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 384% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.