BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Coastal California has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Siskin in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Pine Siskin In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Coastal California is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Coastal California is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.002.4
20260.630.002.3
20270.610.002.3
20280.600.002.3
20290.580.002.3

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ColmaCALIFORNIA381972
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA312023
Big BearCALIFORNIA251981
FairfaxCALIFORNIA162024
PescaderoCALIFORNIA112024
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA81976
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA41970
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA41988
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA41973
Mark WestCALIFORNIA42024
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA31975
MoragaCALIFORNIA31988
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA31975
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21994
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA21985
Morro BayCALIFORNIA21991
ValyermoCALIFORNIA22018
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21975
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA21991
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA21976
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA22019
TomheadCALIFORNIA22008
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11969
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA11994
CoalingaCALIFORNIA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.