BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-76%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Pine Siskin In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.06
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.000.000.06
20280.000.000.06

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA92013
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA71999
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK42009
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA32023
VindexMARYLAND22002
DrydenNEW-YORK21990
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA21995
Greasy RidgeOHIO21981
Hop BottomPENNSYLVANIA21988
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA22019
FloydMARYLAND12016
MedusaNEW-YORK11979
MeridaleNEW-YORK11988
CobleskillNEW-YORK12011
Platte CoveNEW-YORK11992
McdonoughNEW-YORK12015
Phillips CrNEW-YORK11993
SwainNEW-YORK11988
GainesvilleNEW-YORK11990
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA12009
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA12006
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA11988
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA11988
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA11998
Sproul Sf-BPENNSYLVANIA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.