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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Alaska has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-85%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in Alaska: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Alaska is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Alaska is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.0011
20261.20.0011
20271.10.0011
20280.920.0011
20290.780.0011

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope6820241985
Yakutat (Short)5319841984
Sitka (Short)4619921984
Homer3619821977
Thorne Bay3520121989
Seward3019921983
Cordova2620211983
Hyder2620091994
Ft. Richrdsn2220231994
Wrangell (Short)2119841984
Haines1820241972
Matanuska1819831982
Craig1420241983
Sitka1420241993
Ketchikan1320221972
Kenny Lake1320241983
Birch Lake1220212002
Whale Pass1220231997
Yakutat1220241994
Chicken920212021
Paxson Lake819951995
Harlequin L.820241994
Anchor River820241983
Kachemak720221987
Moose Pass719921983

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.