BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in North Dakota has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+118%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has surged in North Dakota: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in North Dakota is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in North Dakota is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.34
20260.130.000.34
20270.130.000.34
20280.130.000.34
20290.130.000.34

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Pine Siskin in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns620241981
Denbigh320241968
Danzig 2320242024
Edgeley219891989
Buchanan219821982
Bowesmont219681968
Nash219851984
Rolla219961995
Carpio219981984
Loraine219901986
Abercrombie220091970
Walcott120142014
Danzig119921992
Emerado120081983
Cooperstown120242024
Horsehead Lk120161981
Zap119881988
Roosevelt Pk119991999
Parshall119981985
Douglas Crk120242024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.