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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Michigan has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-85%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in Michigan: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Michigan is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±255.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Michigan is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.001.1
20260.190.001.1
20270.180.001.1
20280.180.001.1
20290.170.001.1

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford919931993
Harrietta819901990
Creighton520031985
Herman420151983
Bootjack320091968
Crystal Fls320221988
Imp Lake320191999
Muskallonge320241968
Beaver Lake319791979
Ontonagon220191972
Marenisco220191988
Ishpeming220191981
Wilson219971988
Seney Nwr219931993
Tahquamenon220241979
Ensign220092007
Skegemog Pt220092009
Frederic219871987
Sand Lake219991979
Hubbard Lake219881988
Bergland120181985
Ned Lake120231987
Gibbs City119961979
Maple Grove120111969
Brocky Lake120191987

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.