BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in New York has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-91%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in New York: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±238.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.40
20260.020.000.39
20270.020.000.39
20280.010.000.38
20290.010.000.38

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Pine Siskin in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope Falls3019681968
Dexter Lake2519751975
Dannemora2019951995
Mckeever1319921976
Highmarket720061977
Alder Creek619971997
Old Forge519951975
North River519881979
Corbettsvile420091986
Orleans319931993
Blue Ridge S319971984
Willsboro319951995
Balmat319971997
Austerlitz219881988
Dryden219901990
St Regis Fls220161985
Blue Ridge N219991985
Degrasse220182018
Catskills119881988
Medusa119791979
Meridale119881988
Cobleskill120112011
Platte Cove119921973
Mcdonough120152015
Phillips Cr119931992

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.