BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in South Dakota has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in South Dakota: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in South Dakota is projected to rise about 17× by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5012.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

17×Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5012.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in South Dakota is projected to rise about 17× by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5012.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.005.7
20261.60.005.7
20271.60.005.7
20281.60.005.7
20291.60.005.7

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Pine Siskin in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Mountain3220041992
Norbeck2820021992
Roubaix Lk2219911967
Black Fox820171992
Englewood620211992
Rochford420131992
Lightning Cr420081992
Hill City420131992
Hazelrodt320081992
Rosebud220062006
Long Draw220241992
Pleasant Val119971995
Custer120231967
Silver City120121992

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.