BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Arizona has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+95%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has surged in Arizona: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Arizona is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+225%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Arizona is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.9
20261.20.002.9
20271.20.002.9
20281.20.002.9
20291.20.002.9

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine2420231992
Tsaile1920231993
Rucker1220081997
Dry Park1020241992
Mormon Lake919741968
Maine920121992
Sprucedale720231998
Mt. Graham420231995
Prescott320191976
Blue319871977
Williams220011993
Skull Valley220212021
Pinetop220221993
Happy Jack220241977
Black Mesa119951995
Round Rock119891970
Portal120231975
Flagstaff120221988
Sawmill120141988
Clay Spring120242024
Carr Mtn119901988

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.