BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-69%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Vermont is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±667.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±667.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Vermont is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±667.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.002.6
20260.150.002.6
20270.130.002.5
20280.100.002.5
20290.080.002.5

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greensboro2320051988
S Reading1420012001
Hardwick719851973
Gaysville320012001
Post Mills219901984
East Haven219951970
Hinesburg219731973
Grand Isle219921992
Stratton119911991
Landgrove120241987
Shaftsbury119871987
S Wallingfrd119841984
East Calais120181970
Newbury120011988
Waterville119801973
Stowe119881988

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.