BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Pine Siskin in Vermont has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-96%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in Vermont: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Vermont is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±421.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±421.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Vermont is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±421.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.002.5
20270.090.002.4
20280.070.002.4
20290.040.002.4
20300.020.002.4

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greensboro2320051988
S Reading1420012001
Hardwick719851973
Gaysville320012001
Post Mills219901984
Hinesburg219731973
Grand Isle219921992
Stratton119911991
Landgrove120241987
Shaftsbury119871987
S Wallingfrd119841984
East Haven120251970
East Calais120181970
Newbury120011988
Waterville119801973
Stowe119881988

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.