BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Minnesota has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Siskin in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Minnesota is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Minnesota is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.74
20260.140.000.74
20270.140.000.74
20280.130.000.74
20290.130.000.73

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Floodwood5819851972
Little Fork2720241969
Jordan1220231993
Blackduck720182018
Babbitt620001998
Cromwell520001990
Evergreen519841984
Lockport520231967
Oklee519911991
St Stephen219701970
Hovland220041974
Wylie219931993
Crane Lake220231969
Badger220002000
Sawbill Camp220242015
Chisholm220242019
Nebish120192015
Maynard119961995
Pine River119861970
Glyndon120102010
Sawbill Lndg120241975
Hart Lake120151969
Island Lake120171973
Sherry Lake120181977
Debs120081970

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.