BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Montana has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Siskin Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Siskin in Montana. See the full index history below.

Pine Siskin Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Montana is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Montana is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.60.0012
20265.50.0012
20275.50.0012
20285.40.0012
20295.40.0011

Pine Siskin Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek11520241995
Hebgen Lake9220242017
Libby Dam7820241979
Chestnut4920241968
Red Rock4720241974
Woodman4420241968
Pryor Mtn.4020241995
Thompson Riv3920241993
St Regis3420241977
Arlee3320241968
Logan Pass2820241980
Whitefish Lake2820242016
Ninemile2620241993
Wise River2620241993
Cramer Creek2520191994
Threemile Wa2420241994
Clinton2320241972
Sula1820241977
Greenoagh 21720112005
St. Mary 21620242009
East Glacier Park1520242015
Painted Rock1520221992
Swan Lake1420242015
Sunburst1319961996
Elevation Mt1320241994

Pine Siskin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.