BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Northern Rockies has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Siskin in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Pine Siskin In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.20.0014
20266.10.0014
20276.00.0014
20285.90.0014
20295.80.0014

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineWYOMING1182024
Fish CreekMONTANA1152024
Buckskin MtnWYOMING952021
Hebgen LakeMONTANA922024
Libby DamMONTANA782024
CascadeIDAHO751984
MammothWYOMING752024
Colter Bay 2WYOMING632024
Deep CreekIDAHO611985
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON612024
Omak CreekWASHINGTON532024
Twin LakesWASHINGTON522024
ChestnutMONTANA492024
Red RockMONTANA472024
Rochat DivdeIDAHO452023
WoodmanMONTANA442024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA402024
WilsonWYOMING402024
Thompson RivMONTANA392024
St RegisMONTANA342024
ArleeMONTANA332024
NaplesIDAHO322024
Sullivan LkWASHINGTON311999
CobaltIDAHO302024
OchocoOREGON291982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.