BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Siskin In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±743.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+194%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±743.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±743.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.2
20261.10.003.2
20271.10.003.2
20281.10.003.2
20291.10.003.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA322004
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA282002
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA221991
Maynard CouleeMONTANA82024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA82017
SundanceWYOMING82024
MoskeeWYOMING72001
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62021
BrandenbergMONTANA41993
Bull Mtn.MONTANA42019
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA42013
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA42013
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42008
MayoworthWYOMING41992
Moskee 3WYOMING42024
WebsterMONTANA31985
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA31999
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA32008
RoyMONTANA22005
Two DotMONTANA22024
Reed PointMONTANA22024
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA22006
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
DaytonWYOMING22015
MeadowdaleWYOMING21991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.