BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+147%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Pine Siskin In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±239.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±239.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±239.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.20
20260.070.000.20
20270.070.000.20
20280.070.000.20
20290.070.000.20

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SunburstMONTANA131996
ChinookMONTANA82024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA62024
OkleeMINNESOTA51991
ClevelandMONTANA42005
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA32024
WylieMINNESOTA21993
BadgerMINNESOTA22000
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA21989
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA21982
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA21968
NashNORTH-DAKOTA21985
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA21996
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA21998
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA21990
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA22009
MaynardMINNESOTA11996
GlyndonMINNESOTA12010
ErieMINNESOTA12009
Hay LakeMONTANA11994
Great FallsMONTANA11980
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA12014
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA11992
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.