BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Siskin In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+144%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Pine Siskin In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±239.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±239.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±239.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.19
20260.060.000.19
20270.070.000.19
20280.070.000.19
20290.070.000.20

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SunburstMONTANA131996
ChinookMONTANA82024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA62024
OkleeMINNESOTA51991
ClevelandMONTANA42005
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA32024
WylieMINNESOTA21993
BadgerMINNESOTA22000
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA21989
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA21982
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA21968
NashNORTH-DAKOTA21985
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA21996
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA21998
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA21990
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA22009
MaynardMINNESOTA11996
GlyndonMINNESOTA12010
ErieMINNESOTA12009
Hay LakeMONTANA11994
Great FallsMONTANA11980
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA12014
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA11992
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.