BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Siskin In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Pine Siskin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pine Siskin In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 2.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 2.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.82.613
20267.82.613
20277.92.713
20287.92.713
20298.02.713

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO722023
Stillwater PassCOLORADO612009
Grizzly RdgeUTAH452024
La SalUTAH402000
Lake City 2COLORADO362024
SoapstoneUTAH312024
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO302019
Pinos CreekCOLORADO271990
CastletonCOLORADO242024
Uintah NfUTAH231994
Wasatch NfUTAH232024
Navajo LakeUTAH222024
Dunckley PasCOLORADO212024
Weston PassCOLORADO202000
TsaileARIZONA192023
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO192024
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO192024
Skyline DrivUTAH192016
La Sal 3UTAH192024
Dolores RivCOLORADO182024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO182002
PinonCOLORADO172024
HeeneyCOLORADO172019
Gold HillCOLORADO162012
Lizard Head PassCOLORADO162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.