BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Siskin In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pine Siskin in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Siskin In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±293.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±293.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±293.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.001.3
20270.290.001.3
20280.290.001.3
20290.280.001.3
20300.280.001.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pine Siskin in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FloodwoodMINNESOTA581985
Little ForkMINNESOTA272024
PhillipsWISCONSIN211995
PickfordMICHIGAN91993
HarriettaMICHIGAN81990
BlackduckMINNESOTA72018
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN72001
BabbittMINNESOTA62000
CreightonMICHIGAN52003
CromwellMINNESOTA52000
HermanMICHIGAN42015
RhinelanderWISCONSIN42019
BootjackMICHIGAN32009
Ned LakeMICHIGAN32025
MuskallongeMICHIGAN32024
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN31979
Imp LakeMICHIGAN32019
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN32022
Washington IWISCONSIN32018
OntonagonMICHIGAN22019
MareniscoMICHIGAN22019
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22025
WilsonMICHIGAN21997
TahquamenonMICHIGAN22024
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN22009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.