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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Siskin In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Pine Siskin in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-90%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Siskin has collapsed in BCR 4: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Pine Siskin In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Siskin in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.008.0
20270.000.007.9
20280.000.007.9
20290.000.007.9
20300.000.007.9

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Pine Siskin in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HomerALASKA361982
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA222023
MatanuskaALASKA181983
Birch LakeALASKA122021
ChickenALASKA92021
Paxson LakeALASKA81995
KachemakALASKA72022
Chena Hot SpALASKA61987
Seven LakesALASKA62025
KuskulanaALASKA62024
LivengoodALASKA52015
L SalchaALASKA52003
NebesnaALASKA41975
KalifonskyALASKA42023
Nabesna RoadALASKA42015
Goose BayALASKA31982
SourdoughALASKA32018
SavageALASKA32015
DeltaALASKA32024
EagleALASKA22024
NorthwayALASKA21995
MonahanALASKA22025
WillowALASKA22021
Hatcher PassALASKA22025
Swan Lake RdALASKA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.