BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSeiurus aurocapilla

Ovenbird has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,621RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Ovenbird

The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,621 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 39 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Ovenbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.4–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.4–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.94.25.6
20274.94.35.6
20285.04.35.7
20295.04.35.7
20305.04.45.7

Where the Ovenbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Ovenbird, sized by most recent count.

Ovenbird Population Trend by State

Ovenbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-82%196841
Arkansas+13%196932
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a2
Connecticut+81%196820
Delaware+236%196817
Georgia+99%197044
Illinois-36%196930
Indiana14×196932
Iowa-22%197310
Kansasinsufficient datan/a3
Kentucky+27%196850
Maine+109%196878
Maryland+160%196876
Massachusetts+207%196832
Michigan+120%196898
Minnesota+105%196968
Mississippi-11%19756
Missouri18×196965
Montana+310%198120
Nebraska-37%198011
New Hampshire+10%196826
New Jersey+507%196841
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a2
New York+142%1968126
North Carolina+210%1968105
North Dakota-70%198117
Ohio15×196853
Oklahoma+146%19697
Pennsylvania+524%1968133
Rhode Island+320%19685
South Carolina+388%196934
South Dakota-16%196916
Tennessee+38%196838
Utahinsufficient datan/a1
Vermont+143%196826
Virginia+137%196887
West Virginia+179%196864
Wisconsin+82%196891
Wyoming+726%197114

Ovenbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Ovenbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Rockies-3%198315
Prairie Potholes-42%197523
Boreal Hardwood Transition+67%1968127
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+159%196881
Atlantic Northern Forest+82%1968156
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-56%19717
Badlands and Prairies+5%196942
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+12%19874
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+120%196984
Prairie Hardwood Transition+84%1968126
Central Hardwoods+273%1968123
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+13%196922
Southeastern Coastal Plain+382%1968107
Appalachian Mountains+313%1968394
Piedmont+152%1968142
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+153%1968159

Ovenbird Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 45% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.