BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Nebraska has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-37%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 252% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±353.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+252%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±353.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 252% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±353.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.50
20260.220.000.50
20270.220.000.50
20280.220.000.50
20290.220.000.50

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Ovenbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thurston320231971
Crawford220241980
Almeria220002000
Johnstown220171970
Johnson120162013
Oglala Nat. Grass.120112011
Pine Ridge120241999
Kearney119871987
Liberty 3120192019
Crookston120232019
Midway120152015

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.