BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Missouri has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

20×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Missouri: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.22.5
20261.91.22.5
20271.91.22.6
20281.91.32.6
20292.01.32.6

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Ovenbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Graniteville1820241982
Centerville1420241994
Clementine 21420072005
Wesco1320241974
Bennett1320241998
Clementine820021974
Williamsvill720241995
Gerald620242013
Ironton519801973
Cascade320241967
Huntsville320241979
Sweden220241985
Akers220241968
Handley220231990
Syracuse220241969
Centertown220211986
House Springs220242017
Kahoka219861986
Trenton220172016
Union219991991
Doe Run220242016
Pulaski120191987
Peace Valley120241976
Cassville120222006
Pineville120241983

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.