BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Missouri has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

18×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Missouri: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.12.5
20271.91.22.5
20281.91.22.6
20291.91.22.6
20301.91.32.6

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Ovenbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville2120251994
Clementine 21420072005
Graniteville1020251982
Bennett920251998
Clementine820021974
Wesco720251974
Williamsvill620251995
Cascade520251967
Ironton519801973
Osage Beach520252005
Palace420252013
Akers320251968
Lincoln320252013
Sweden220241985
Handley220231990
Syracuse220241969
House Springs220252017
Kahoka219861986
Trenton220172016
Barks220251994
Moselle220252001
Union219991991
Doe Run220252016
Pulaski120191987
Peace Valley120251976

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.