BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Wyoming has surged: up 780% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+780%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Wyoming: up 780% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Wyoming is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.36–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Wyoming is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.36–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.322.0
20261.20.332.0
20271.20.342.0
20281.20.352.0
20291.20.362.0

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Ovenbird in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moskee 33320242022
Moskee 22720212002
Sundance2620241975
Moskee2020011980
Hunter Peak120042004
Dayton120111999
Bald Mtn120182018
Crazy Woman120061980
Buckskin Mtn119811981
Seely119941994
Brookhurst120051968
Gvnt Valley120161996
Fletcher Pk120241984
Mayoworth119921992

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.