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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Connecticut has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Connecticut: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Connecticut is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Connecticut is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151219
2027161219
2028161219
2029161219
2030161319

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Ovenbird in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren5920111972
Warren 23920252012
Woodstock 23820252016
Uncasville2720251973
Mid Haddam2320251973
New Hartford2120241994
Granby1620251988
Willimantic1320181967
Sherman1120191972
New Hartford1119871972
Woodstock1020071968
Long Hill1020191972
No Woodbury920251967
Buckingham820221966
Mystic520231973
E Hartland519921966
Westbrook220191969
Greenwich120091967
Danbury120231968
Southington120251973

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.