BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Wisconsin has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Wisconsin: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211725
2027211725
2028211825
2029221825
2030221825

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Ovenbird in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mellen10420251998
Shanagolden7720251966
Land O' Lakes 27120252017
Grand View6620251966
Conover6620251998
Cavour6520251998
Popple River6320251966
Hatfield6319981970
Bashaw6220251998
Weirgor Springs6220251999
Flambeau5220251998
Amberg5020251980
Mcnaughton4820241966
Eagle River4820251966
Amnicon Falls4720251998
Iron River4520251967
Bayfield4220251967
Land O Lakes4220161967
Union Twp4020251966
Mather3820231966
Montreal3720251968
Chaffey3420251966
Wausaukee3420251980
Pigeon Creek3220251999
Rib Lake3020251966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.