BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Wisconsin has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Wisconsin: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211725
2026211825
2027211825
2028221825
2029221826

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Ovenbird in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mellen12420241998
Weirgor Springs7520241999
Cavour6720241998
Bayfield6620241967
Grand View6320241966
Hatfield6319981970
Shanagolden6220241966
Conover6220241998
Flambeau6220241998
Popple River5720241966
Amberg5420241980
Montreal5120241968
Land O' Lakes 25020242017
Union Twp4820241966
Couderay4820191969
Mcnaughton4820241966
Amnicon Falls4720241998
Irma4420241967
Land O Lakes4220161967
Pigeon Creek4020241999
Cadott3920241966
Eagle River3820241966
Mather3820231966
Wausaukee3720241980
Iron River3520241967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.