BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Montana has surged: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+295%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Montana: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Montana is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Montana is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.020.24
20260.130.020.24
20270.130.020.24
20280.140.030.24
20290.140.030.25

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Ovenbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard Coulee420242017
Pryor Mtn.320242001
Elliston219911990
Reed Point220092009
Ninemile220242023
St Mary120032003
Bull Mtn.119971997
Augusta119831983
Brusett119841982
Inside Road120152015
Forsyth120172017
Locate120132013
Chestnut119901990
Laurel119871987
Brandenberg120191977
East Glacier Park120242024
Clancy120192019
Pagil Gulch120172017
Miles City120232017
Chuffey Spring120192019

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.