BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in West Virginia has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+179%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in West Virginia: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in West Virginia is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in West Virginia is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.77.412
20279.97.512
202810.07.712
2029107.812
2030107.913

Ovenbird Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Ovenbird in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemis3120252001
Bismark2520251976
Glady2320252001
Pedro2220251979
Denmar2220251980
Strange Crk2020251982
Stollings1920211986
Canaan1920251974
Green Bank1920251977
Shanghai1920251995
Meadowville1820251972
Three Forks1720251971
Fayetteville1519961980
Wymer1520151995
Ruthbelle1420251975
Smithfield1220251993
Clear Creek1120251988
Breeden1120241986
Lost River1120251997
Nicut1020251986
Hix920251970
Smoot820251980
Sutton820251976
Cedarville820231982
Ringgold820252025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.