BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in West Virginia has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in West Virginia: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in West Virginia is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in West Virginia is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.77.312
20269.87.512
20279.97.612
2028107.712
2029107.913

Ovenbird Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Ovenbird in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glady3320242001
Bemis2620242001
Stollings1920211986
Denmar1920241980
Green Bank1720241977
Ruthbelle1720241975
Ghent1520241978
Fayetteville1519961980
Meadowville1520241972
Wymer1520151995
Strange Crk1420241982
Shanghai1420221995
Clear Creek1320241988
Canaan1320241974
Bramwell1120231978
Breeden1120241986
Richwood1120241980
Three Forks1020241971
Hubbardstown920231966
Washburn920221974
Sutton820241976
Cedarville820231982
Smithfield820241993
Bismark820231976
Hix720241970

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.