BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Alabama has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has collapsed in Alabama: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.44
20260.130.000.43
20270.120.000.43
20280.120.000.42
20290.110.000.41

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Ovenbird in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 2520242001
Sunny Eve420241966
Borden Sprng419981994
Hillsboro319961967
Guntersville320051980
Swaim220041968
Whitehouse220171980
Holt220022002
Odenville220232010
Elkmont219961993
Talladega220012000
St Florian119981967
Trade120161970
Valhermoso Spgs119831983
Pine Grove120211969
Dawson119981988
Millerville120241971
Dearmanville119781967
Greensport119931987
Smyer Lake120051977
Mt Olive120021967
Howard120121979
Maytown120081981
Liberty120211968
Nixburg 2120142002

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.