BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Minnesota has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+105%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Minnesota: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 14–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 14–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171321
2027171322
2028181322
2029181322
2030181422

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ovenbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Lndg11620251973
Lockport10820251967
Blackduck9820222004
Chisholm9020242019
Sherry Lake8320221969
Hart Lake7220251967
Glendale6220251993
Cass Lake6020161980
Hovland5020251973
Tamarac Nwr4820241991
Nett Lake4820242013
Cohasset4720221973
Bigfork4720251993
Jordan4620251993
Sawbill Camp4520251993
Cromwell4420251967
Mahtowa4320231993
Red Lake4320251993
Crane Lake4220251969
Floodwood3720251967
Debs3420251969
Bena3319771967
Backus3220251967
Babbitt3120251994
Little Fork3020241969

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.