BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in South Carolina has surged: up 388% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+388%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in South Carolina: up 388% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.56–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.56–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.491.6
20271.00.511.6
20281.10.531.6
20291.10.541.6
20301.10.561.6

Ovenbird Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Ovenbird in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green Sea1020252019
Greenwood720252007
Salem Xrd420191982
Plum Branch420251995
Whitmire420232010
Pinewood420191998
Battlecreek320251999
Sandhills220251996
New Holland220251972
Blacksburg220121998
Mount Pisgah220251998
Cauthens Xrd220211982
Rome120092008
Holly Hill120232019
Coward120232005
Wagener120251993
Dillon120211995
Bishopville120031984
Walterboro120172006
Little Mtn119811979
Barton Creek120171967
Boiling Spgs119781970
Landrum119861973
Campobello120142014
Lowrys120252017

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.