BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in South Dakota has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in South Dakota is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±180.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in South Dakota is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.002.8
20271.40.002.8
20281.40.002.8
20291.40.002.8
20301.40.002.8

Ovenbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Ovenbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Long Draw1120251992
Norbeck1120021992
Silver City920121992
Hill City820131992
Elk Mountain720041992
Lightning Cr520221992
Pleasant Val420241993
Rochford320251996
Wind Cave Np320251999
Hazelrodt220251992
Black Fox220171992
Reva119991985
Englewood120211992
Lane 2120072007
Roubaix Lk119911967
Custer120251967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.