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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Virginia has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+157%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Virginia: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161120
2026161220
2027161220
2028161220
2029161220

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Ovenbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Knob4920241992
Pw Forest Pk4620091992
W Augusta4520241967
Big Meadows4220241993
Gr North Mtn4120241993
Front Royal3420241993
Shenandoa Np2920241993
Brandon2620241992
Walkers2520231992
Truhart2420241996
Loft Mtn2320231993
Douthat2220141992
Ft Pickett S2119951993
Isom1920241969
Ft Pickett N1919951993
Iron Mountain 21920132012
Rural Retrt1820241983
New Market1820241992
Potts Mtn.1720131992
Mountain Lk.1620181992
Port Royal1520191977
Pine Mtn.1520241996
Hall1420231967
Saltville1420241969
Gloucester1420241992

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.