BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Virginia has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+137%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Virginia: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151120
2027161220
2028161220
2029161220
2030161220

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Ovenbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Meadows4920251993
Shenandoa Np4620251993
Pw Forest Pk4620091992
Gr North Mtn4420251993
W Augusta3820251967
Front Royal3820251993
Brandon3720251992
Bald Knob3420251992
Walkers2520231992
Truhart2420241996
Loft Mtn2320231993
Douthat2220141992
Covington2120251966
Ft Pickett S2119951993
New Market2020251992
Isom1920241969
Ft Pickett N1919951993
Iron Mountain 21920132012
Church Road1720251966
Potts Mtn.1720131992
Mountain Lk.1620181992
White Stone1520251966
Brodnax1520251973
Partlow1320151977
Branchville1320241966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.