BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-53%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in North Dakota is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in North Dakota is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.36
20260.060.000.35
20270.050.000.34
20280.040.000.34
20290.040.000.33

Ovenbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Ovenbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown220151991
Turtle Mtns220241988
Tobacco220061968
Gorham119681968
Roosevelt Pk120191982
Golva119901990
Bentley120092009
Lake George119901990
Glen Ullin119901990
Kempton120052005
Douglas Crk119841984
Buchanan120062002
Dunn Center120221987
Carpio119991999
Stanley120231967
Denbigh120022002
Zap119671967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.