BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Maine has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+109%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Maine: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maine is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 16–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maine is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 16–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241633
2027251633
2028251634
2029251634
2030251634

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Ovenbird in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfield9119811976
Cooper4520211975
Horse Mtn3920111983
Nesowadnehun3820211990
Manchester3719951971
Carrying Pl3720251979
Wytopitlock3620251976
Waite3619771977
Andover3620212010
Hermon3520211966
Aurora3520211975
East Troy3420211972
Forest Sta3420001966
Reeds3320251990
Brooks3320211977
Hudson3320161973
Winn3220251969
Searsport3020252002
Eastbrook2920251971
Charleston2920211975
Benedicta2920221976
Deblois2720071967
Seboomook Lk2720141972
Bowdoin Ctr2620211971
Harmony2620251967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.