BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Maine has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+108%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Maine: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maine is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 16–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241533
2026241633
2027251634
2028251634
2029251634

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Ovenbird in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfield9119811976
Charleston5720191975
Brooks5320191977
Cooper4520211975
Carrying Pl4420241979
Horse Mtn3920111983
Reeds3820241990
Nesowadnehun3820211990
Manchester3719951971
Waite3619771977
Andover3620212010
East Troy3520191972
Aurora3520211975
Forest Sta3420001966
Hudson3320161973
Eastbrook3220241971
Hermon3120191966
Medway3020181976
Benedicta2920221976
Hancock2820241969
Deblois2720071967
Seboomook Lk2720141972
Winn2720221969
Bowdoin Ctr2620211971
Greenville2620221972

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.