BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Vermont has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+144%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Vermont: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Vermont is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 20–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Vermont is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 20–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241928
2026241928
2027241929
2028242029
2029252029

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Ovenbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro4720241966
Stratton4720241966
East Calais4420241966
Middlesex4120241968
Landgrove3820241966
Northfld Fls3320211980
Stowe3120241988
Gaysville2620211966
Newbury 22520232005
S Reading2320241966
St Johnsbury2320241970
East Haven2020241966
Newbury2020041986
Hardwick2020241966
Fletcher1420241972
S Wallingfrd1120221966
Post Mills920241966
Shaftsbury920241966
Hinesburg919941966
Bristol920181995
Greensboro820241967
North Pownal620241966
W Rutland620241966
Waterville619801967
Colchester120241986

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.