BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Vermont has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+143%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Vermont: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 25 (95% range 20–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 25 (95% range 20–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241928
2027241929
2028242029
2029252029
2030252030

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Ovenbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro5220251966
Stratton4920251966
Landgrove4820251966
Middlesex3820251968
Gaysville3620251966
Northfld Fls3620251980
East Calais3120251966
Stowe3120241988
East Haven2720251966
Newbury 22520232005
S Reading2320241966
St Johnsbury2120251970
Newbury2020041986
Hardwick2020241966
Greensboro1920251967
Post Mills1820251966
W Rutland1220251966
S Wallingfrd1120221966
Shaftsbury920251966
Hinesburg919941966
North Pownal820251966
Bristol820251995
Fletcher620251972
Waterville619801967
Colchester120251986

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.