BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Michigan has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+120%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Michigan: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 17–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 17–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221628
2027221628
2028231729
2029231729
2030231729

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ovenbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cluster Lakes10120102006
Gooseneck9020102008
Ensign8420102006
Sidnaw7920251993
Big Island Lake7820102008
Scott'S Marsh7120102006
Isabella 26920252013
Creighton6620251978
Imp Lake5620191992
Gibbs City5420251979
Ned Lake5320251986
Shingleton5220251967
Brocky Lake5120251980
Brush Creek5120161974
Marenisco5020191981
Maple Grove4920251967
Raco4820251971
Harrietta4720251990
Crystal Fls4620251979
Ontonagon4420191967
Hiawatha Nf4420251992
Muskallonge4320241966
Betchler Lks4220251992
Herman4120221983
Scottville3620251968

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.