BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Michigan has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+105%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Michigan: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Michigan is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 17–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Michigan is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 17–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221628
2026221628
2027221628
2028221629
2029231729

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ovenbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cluster Lakes10120102006
Sidnaw10020241993
Gooseneck9020102008
Ensign8420102006
Big Island Lake7820102008
Scott'S Marsh7120102006
Imp Lake5620191992
Isabella 25520242013
Brocky Lake5220241980
Brush Creek5120161974
Marenisco5020191981
Raco4520241971
Ontonagon4420191967
Muskallonge4320241966
Maple Grove4220241967
Creighton4220231978
Herman4120221983
Harrietta4020241990
Betchler Lks4020241992
Ned Lake3820241986
Hiawatha Nf3720241992
Shingleton3620241967
Hubbard Lake3619961973
Gibbs City3420241979
Pleasant Val3319971967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.