BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Indiana has surged: up 983% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+983%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Indiana: up 983% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.23–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.23–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.181.7
20260.940.191.7
20270.950.201.7
20280.960.221.7
20290.970.231.7

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Ovenbird in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hoosier4520241990
Belmont720241981
Celestine420021979
Evansville220191972
Cross Plains220222000
Hebron119711971
Knox120231982
Kewanna119811981
Indiana Dune120191993
Packertown120041967
Ellis119951966
Fowler119841983
Kankakee Sands120172000
Monticello119951995
Galveston119851985
Swayzee119811981
Berne119691969
Pimento120182018
Azalia119971985
Brookville119851985
Cumback120041996
Indian Spgs120231985
Clear Spring120181986
New Phila120211983
Corydon120241972

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.