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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Pennsylvania has surged: up 520% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+520%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Pennsylvania: up 520% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 24 (95% range 21–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 24 (95% range 21–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231926
2026232026
2027232027
2028242127
2029242127

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Ovenbird in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tussey Mtn.14720241993
Broad Mtn.8520241993
Lynch8120241968
Pottersdale7620241968
Odin7520241973
Duboistown7120241987
Sproul Sf-B7120242002
Rothrock Sf7020191992
Ansonia6420242002
Sproul Sf-A6420242002
Cherry Sprs6020231974
South Mtn5620231986
N Pine Grove5420241969
Roulette5120211970
Ltl Pine Cr5120241990
Rasselas5020221969
Landisburg5020241978
Poyntelle4820241969
Susquehanna4720241971
Marsh Hill4520241983
Roulette 24520242022
Eldred4420221973
Sigel4320241981
Warrens Mill4320241971
Mawr Glen4220241966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.