BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Pennsylvania has surged: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+524%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Pennsylvania: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 21–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 21–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026232026
2027232027
2028242127
2029242127
2030242128

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Ovenbird in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tussey Mtn.11920251993
Broad Mtn.10020251993
Sproul Sf-B7820252002
Lynch7420251968
Duboistown7120241987
Rothrock Sf7020191992
Pottersdale6720251968
Cherry Sprs6520251974
Ansonia6520252002
Sproul Sf-A6120252002
Russell City5920251968
Ellenton5520251982
Ltl Pine Cr5420251990
Marsh Hill5220251983
Roulette5120211970
Roulette 25120252022
Odin5020251973
Rasselas5020221969
Munson4720251979
Eldred4420221973
Logue4420251971
Poyntelle4420251969
N Pine Grove4020251969
Sigel3920251981
Mawr Glen3920251966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.