BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in New York has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in New York: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New York is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New York is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151218
2026151318
2027151318
2028161318
2029161318

Ovenbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ovenbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wanakena5520241980
Degrasse5420241980
S Berne 25320242014
Inlet5020171979
Warrensburg4720191966
N Wilmurt4519981967
Mcdonough4120171967
Hope Falls4119951968
Underwood 23920092005
Horseshoe L.3820171992
S Berne3720131967
Old Forge 23720192007
Balmat3620081977
Downsville3620191982
Parishville3220241968
Dannemora3220061968
Phillips Cr3120241968
Meridale2820241967
Sabattis2819831966
Corbettsvile2620241966
Kasoag2620241966
Newcomb2620221971
Willsboro2620241967
Oxford 22620241977
North River2520071966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.