BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in New York has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+142%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in New York: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New York is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New York is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151218
2027151318
2028151318
2029161318
2030161318

Ovenbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ovenbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wanakena6320251980
S Berne 25220252014
Inlet5020171979
Warrensburg4720191966
N Wilmurt4519981967
Degrasse4420251980
Mcdonough4120171967
Hope Falls4119951968
Phillips Cr4020251968
Parishville3920251968
Underwood 23920092005
Horseshoe L.3820171992
S Berne3720131967
Old Forge 23720192007
Balmat3620081977
Downsville3620191982
Dannemora3220061968
Kasoag3020251966
Corbettsvile2820251966
Sabattis2819831966
Newcomb2620221971
North River2620251966
Willsboro2620241967
Oxford 22620241977
Highmarket2520251967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.