BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Massachusetts has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+207%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Massachusetts: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 22–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 22–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026252129
2027252129
2028252129
2029262230
2030262230

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Ovenbird in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ware River8220221993
Chesterfield5020251967
Cummington4320141968
Monterey4120252019
Belchertown4020251967
N Orange3920251968
Pittsfield3720161967
Prattville3520191966
Wellfleet 23320252016
Warren 23220252010
S Barre3020251968
Cummington 23020252015
Marion2620251966
Hancock2220151997
Sheffield1920221969
Princeton1019761969
N. Andover1020251995
Warren920091968
Holden920251977
Brockton820191967
Gay Head720251996
Cheshire619941969
Maynard520251967
N Oxford520251968
Mansfield520251968

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.