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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Massachusetts has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+204%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Massachusetts: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 22–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 22–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025252129
2026252129
2027252129
2028262230
2029262230

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Ovenbird in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ware River8220221993
Chesterfield7020241967
Belchertown4720241967
N Orange4320241968
Cummington4320141968
Monterey3920242019
Pittsfield3720161967
Prattville3520191966
Cummington 23520242015
Warren 23120242010
S Barre3020241968
Wellfleet 22420242016
Hancock2220151997
Marion2020241966
Sheffield1920221969
Gay Head1320241996
N. Andover1320241995
Princeton1019761969
Warren920091968
Brockton820191967
Littleton820241967
Maynard720221967
Cheshire619941969
Holden520241977
Chilmark419831969

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.