BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Delaware has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+188%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Delaware: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Delaware is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.32–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Delaware is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.32–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.70.3111
20265.70.3211
20275.70.3211
20285.70.3211
20295.70.3211

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Ovenbird in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lowes Xrds2919911966
Pepperbox 21420242017
Pepperbox1320161998
Milton 21120172017
Millsboro920242017
Holleyville820041966
Frankford720121966
Georgetown620221992
Blackbird520241995
Milton420091966
Harrington320241967
Frederica320141966
Mt Pleasant120181966
Wilmington120131969
Dover119791969
Bethany Bch119661966
Holleyville 2120242006

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.