BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Delaware has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+236%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Delaware: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Delaware is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.52–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Delaware is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.52–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.80.5011
20275.80.5011
20285.80.5111
20295.90.5211
20305.90.5211

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Ovenbird in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lowes Xrds2919911966
Pepperbox 21920252017
Millsboro1320252017
Pepperbox1320161998
Holleyville820041966
Frankford720121966
Milton 2720252017
Blackbird620251995
Georgetown620221992
Milton420091966
Frederica320251966
Harrington220251967
Mt Pleasant120181966
Wilmington120131969
Dover119791969
Bethany Bch119661966
Holleyville 2120242006

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.