BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Arkansas has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 141% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 141% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.81.36.3
20263.81.36.3
20273.91.46.4
20283.91.46.4
20294.01.56.5

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Ovenbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Compton2420221967
Ozark Nf920241991
Boston Mtn.920241994
Waldron920241967
Hatfield 2720242017
Marshall720212011
Ramsey519871987
Crows519911967
Old Milo419941992
Zion419961970
Rudy420242012
Poyen319851972
Rupert320241968
Magazine Mtn220211993
Ashdown219871987
Blakely219991970
Lurton220231967
Sims220242011
Stamps120222008
Crowley'S Ridge120222011
Hollywood120241970
Saffell119771977
Stark120231967
Maynard120242022
Fulton119951969

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.