BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in North Carolina has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+192%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in North Carolina: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.23.311
20267.33.311
20277.33.411
20287.43.411
20297.43.511

Ovenbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Ovenbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chowan River2320062002
California 22220242014
California2120131972
Jackson1820171995
Table Rock1820221994
Gupton1720242001
Rheasville1620172005
Waterville1620241994
Fontana1420241968
Youngsville1420241966
Maple Hill1420231995
Beargrass1319811968
Speed1320241986
Uwharrie Nf1320011993
Washington1320242001
Cherokee1320242011
Arcola1220241971
N. Mills Riv1219951994
Highlands1220241994
Andrews1119981994
Spring Hope1120242002
Osmond1020242001
Kyle1020241994
Reelsboro920191997
Dortches920241990

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.