BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in North Carolina has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+210%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in North Carolina: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.13.211
20277.23.311
20287.23.311
20297.33.411
20307.33.411

Ovenbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Ovenbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
California 22720252014
Waterville2320251994
Chowan River2320062002
California2120131972
Osmond2020252001
Linville1920251976
Jackson1820171995
Gupton1820252001
Table Rock1820221994
Highlands1820251994
Spring Hope1720252002
Arcola1620251971
Youngsville1620251966
Bullock1620251997
Rheasville1620172005
Maple Hill1420231995
Beargrass1319811968
Uwharrie Nf1320011993
N. Mills Riv1219951994
Fontana1120251968
French Broad River1120252001
Andrews1119981994
Kyle1020241994
Washington1020252001
Brevard920251968

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.