BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Tennessee has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Tennessee is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Tennessee is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.74.4
20273.11.74.4
20283.11.74.5
20293.11.84.5
20303.11.84.5

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Ovenbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cades Cove1920251989
Fish Springs1220231966
Mecca920231994
Tellico920251995
Elk Valley820251970
Trace Collinwood720182016
Jasper720251967
Jones Gap520191982
Harbuck520231994
Newfound Gap520251990
Mcfarland419931967
Smokey Jct320221966
Cornpone220241990
Silver Pt220241981
Oliver Spgs220221966
Walland219891966
Signal Mtn120091983
Pawpaw120102010
Willis Sprng120231994
Silerton119681968
Pond Creek119941969
Indian Mound119981996
Collinwood120221975
Wrigley120151967
Campbellsville119931992

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.