BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Maryland has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+166%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Maryland: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.7 (95% range 7.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.7 (95% range 7.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.37.511
20269.47.611
20279.57.711
20289.67.711
20299.77.812

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Ovenbird in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finzel5820241995
Jennings3620241995
Furnace Town3220242015
Green Ridge2620241995
Oldtown2220241970
Accident 22220242018
Cokesbury2120241966
Sinepuxent2019781966
Snow Hill2019761966
Piney Grove1820241995
Madison1720241967
La Plata1620091966
Berlin1620241980
Honga1520241966
Earlton1520242014
Island Creek1520241991
Wolfsville1220241966
Newark1220241966
Indiantown1120141977
Eklo1020181966
Pomfret1020241966
Davidsnville1020241982
Nottingham1020242005
Smithsburg920141967
Cheltenham920041966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.