BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Maryland has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+160%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Maryland: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.8 (95% range 7.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.8 (95% range 7.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.47.611
20279.57.711
20289.67.811
20299.77.911
20309.87.912

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Ovenbird in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finzel4320251995
Green Ridge3220251995
Furnace Town2920252015
Cokesbury2720251966
Oldtown2220251970
Newark2220251966
Sinepuxent2019781966
Snow Hill2019761966
Jennings1920251995
La Plata1620091966
Piney Grove1520251995
Earlton1520242014
Accident 21420252018
Hughesville1320251966
Island Creek1320251991
Pomonkey1220251966
Berlin1120251980
Indiantown1120141977
Davidsnville1120251982
Eklo1020181966
Pomfret1020241966
Nottingham1020252005
Smithsburg920141967
Cheltenham920041966
Northeast920161966

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.