BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Georgia has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+155%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Georgia: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Georgia is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.26–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Georgia is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.26–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.241.4
20260.810.251.4
20270.810.251.4
20280.820.261.4
20290.820.261.4

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Ovenbird in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Cty1220241975
Sharon920222021
Carrs Station820242008
Sharon 2620242023
Maxeys420241997
Jacksonboro420192011
Pleasant Hill420242005
Lincolnton320172014
Cartersville320241978
Lincolnton 2320242018
Bowdon220161995
Shannon219921975
Millen220242007
White Hill220102010
Curry Hill220192016
Yates Crossroads220242005
Amos Mill220222011
Piedmont Nwr119921992
Lyons119881988
Ball Ground120212019
Fairplay119831966
Athens120241966
Oakman120111966
Riceboro120232023
Baldwin120131967

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.