BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Georgia has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+99%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Georgia: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Georgia is projected to rise about 76% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.24–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Georgia is projected to rise about 76% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.24–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.780.221.3
20270.790.221.4
20280.790.231.4
20290.800.231.4
20300.800.241.4

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Ovenbird in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sharon920222021
Carrs Station820252008
Sharon 2720252023
Maxeys420241997
Lincolnton 2420252018
Lincolnton320172014
Pleasant Hill320252005
Cartersville220251978
Bowdon220161995
Shannon219921975
Millen220242007
White Hill220102010
Curry Hill220192016
Yates Crossroads220242005
Amos Mill220222011
Piedmont Nwr119921992
Lyons119881988
Ball Ground120252019
Fairplay119831966
Athens120241966
Oakman120111966
Riceboro120232023
Baldwin120131967
Grovetown120061990
Jacksonboro120252011

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.