BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in New Jersey has surged: up 422% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+422%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in New Jersey: up 422% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.1–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.1–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025135.721
2026135.821
2027145.921
2028146.021
2029146.121

Ovenbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Ovenbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 38920242021
Pomona6020241978
Friendship5420241977
Villas4319811979
Winslow4220241989
High Point3820241977
Estell Manor3020222021
Del Haven2219911991
Hope1519941970
Kemah Lake1420241966
Spraguetown 21420122000
Bennett Mill1320001966
Toms River820241966
Albion820221966
Six Points720241978
New Bedford620171969
Ancora519771966
Sandbrook520241969
Spraguetown519991977
Mt Misery519891976
Holmansville420091969
Ramseysburg420241995
Cape May Ch320131992
Greenwich220241966
Croton220071970

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.