BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in New Jersey has surged: up 507% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+507%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in New Jersey: up 507% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.6–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.6–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026146.121
2027146.222
2028146.322
2029146.522
2030146.622

Ovenbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Ovenbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 39220252021
Pomona6120251978
Villas4319811979
Friendship4220251977
High Point3620251977
Winslow2920251989
Estell Manor2620252021
Del Haven2219911991
Hope1519941970
Kemah Lake1420241966
Spraguetown 21420122000
Bennett Mill1320001966
Ramseysburg1220251995
Toms River820241966
Albion820221966
New Bedford620171969
Greenwich520251966
Ancora519771966
Spraguetown519991977
Mt Misery519891976
Six Points420251978
Holmansville420091969
Cape May Ch320131992
Croton 2320252008
Sandbrook220251969

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.