BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Kentucky has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has risen sharply in Kentucky: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 257% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.32–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+257%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 257% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.32–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.40.108.6
20264.40.168.7
20274.50.218.7
20284.50.268.8
20294.60.328.9

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Ovenbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pippa Passes3919971988
Mammoth Cave3620141995
Staffordsvil2319971996
Mammoth Cave North2020132009
Paintsville1719951979
Pine Ridge1519781966
Beattyville 21420242006
Carter1020241976
Cumberlnd Gp720181966
Phelps719971979
Campton720211979
Beattyville420011966
Levee419821966
Lebanon Junction420242001
Brownsville320242022
Kehoe 2320232005
Daniel Boone319881966
Apex220182005
Mckee220241967
Gatewood220041984
Kehoe219921972
Levee 2220192007
Million 2220152015
Hodgenville 2220162008
Lovelacevile119891989

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.