BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Ovenbird in Ohio has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

15×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ovenbird Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Ohio: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Ohio is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Ohio is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.53.911
20267.64.111
20277.74.211
20287.94.311
20298.04.512

Ovenbird Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Ovenbird in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow7620241992
Shawnee S.F.4920001992
Zaleski S.F.4620241992
Pike S.F.3320131992
Wayne N.F.3220241992
Mohican S.F.3220241992
Scioto Trail3120131992
Tick Ridge1920191993
Ray1420241992
Dell1320191993
Bolins Mills1020241966
Dresden720241973
Wilgus720181992
Birmingham620241989
Shawnee S.F. 2620192001
Coal Run419921967
Scioto Furn420221992
Petersburg320071996
Baxter Ridge320231998
South Olive320241993
New Marshfld320241968
Omega320231966
Pomeroy320221966
Rome320241968
Stonecreek220241996

Ovenbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.